Has the S&P500 posted a top?

How nice would it be if we could confirm that the S&P500 has posted a top and is all set to move down sharply? Alas, the markets are seldom that generous to send us clear-cut signs.

I am reminded of what the famous options trader and mathematical statistician (and author of The Black Swan book) once said. He said, “If you gave an investor the next day’s news 24 hours in advance, he would go bust in less than a year”. We are constantly seeking to know what will happen next. But that is only half the problem. Even if we knew what might happen with a certain high level of confidence, we often make the mistake of incorrect position sizing. And that is how many traders go bust.

Anyway, here is a chart of the S&P500 with my thoughts on it. If you follow the methods taught in my online program, you will know how to trade this with confidence. There are certain low-risk strategies that we need to consider before every potential trade. Merely knowing a technical target is seldom enough to make us money.

Let me end with this quote from Ernest Hemingway (The Sun Also Rises). “How did you go bankrupt?” “Gradually, and then suddenly.”